Strategy has lost ~50% in BTC terms since May — and this pullback is exactly the opportunity long-horizon investors wait for.

The chart tells a simple but powerful story: MSTR has underperformed Bitcoin by nearly 50% in six months. For most companies, this would signal a deterioration in fundamentals. For Strategy — the benchmark Bitcoin Treasury Company — it signals something entirely different:

The compression cycle has ended. The short overhang has cleared. Fresh capital has arrived at the lowest valuation base in years. And the upside convexity has reset.

This is precisely the moment when institutional investors historically step in.

1. Premium Compression to NAV = A High-Conviction Entry Point

For four years, Strategy traded at 1.5×–2.5× its Bitcoin Net Asset Value. Today, the stock sits at ~1.0× NAV — close to pure Bitcoin value with the entire corporate premium wiped out.

Why this matters:

• The emotionally-driven part of the valuation is gone.
• The arbitrage trade (long BTC / short MSTR) is finished.
• Every euro of new capital now converts to BTC at maximum per-share efficiency.
• Long-term downside is now largely equivalent to Bitcoin itself.

When a Bitcoin-leveraged company trades at NAV with its treasury engine fully intact, that is almost always the beginning of the next premium expansion cycle.

2. The Chanos Capitulation Confirms the Compression Is Over

Jim Chanos — one of the most respected short-sellers of the last 40 years — has closed his long-BTC/short-MSTR trade.

This is not noise. This is structural.

It means:

• the premium he bet against has collapsed,
• the arbitrage spread he harvested is gone,
• the selling pressure tied to that trade is removed, and
• the largest single headwind in the name has ended.

When the smartest short on the Street walks away, the asymmetry flips to the long side.

3. STRE Capital Arrives at the Perfect Time (~€620m)

This is the most bullish part of the setup — and the most misunderstood.

Here are the correct STRE deal numbers:

• 7.75m shares issued
• €80 issue price
• €100 stated amount
• 10% annual dividend
• ≈€620m gross proceeds
• ≈€608.8m net proceeds
• Use: Bitcoin accumulation + corporate liquidity

This capital is landing at a time when Strategy’s stock trades at NAV, not at a 2×–3× premium.

Why this is so bullish:

When Strategy raises capital at parity and deploys it into Bitcoin, the BTC per share accretion is maximized.

This is the exact opposite of 2024, when new capital purchased BTC but was diluted by a very high equity premium.

In Wall Street terms, STRE is “high-octane capital” injected at the deepest possible discount.

This is how premium cycles restart.

4. The Flywheel Is Reset — Not Broken

Strategy’s model has always been:

1. Raise capital
2. Convert into Bitcoin
3. Increase BTC per share
4. Let the market re-rate the premium
5. Use the premium to raise more capital
6. Repeat

The 2025 drawdown didn’t break this flywheel — it simply reset it.

Today the system has zero excess valuation, cleaner sentiment, and stronger forward accretion.

The last time this happened was 2020. The stock went 20× over the next cycle.

Past performance ≠ future results — but the structural pattern is undeniable.

5. The Asymmetric Upside Is Now Fully Visible

Downside risk:

Mostly Bitcoin itself. Premium cannot compress further; it is already gone.

Upside drivers:

A rare triple-stack convexity:

1. BTC appreciation
2. BTC per share accretion from STRE deployment
3. Premium expansion back toward historical norms (1.25×–1.75×)

This combination does not happen when MSTR is ripping. It only happens at cycle resets.

This is that reset.

6. Strategic Interpretation for Institutional Buyers

At this moment, Strategy Inc. offers:

• Bitcoin exposure at NAV
• Leverage optionality without the leverage premium
• €600m+ fresh perpetual capital ready to convert to BTC
• A cleared short overhang
• A treasury engine about to reaccelerate
• A historically deep valuation base
• A company with no near-term debt maturities
• A stock that has already taken all the pain

This is not a distressed asset. This is not a broken model. This is the reset phase before the next expansion.

For allocators building exposure to Bitcoin-denominated equity structures, this is one of the cleanest accumulation zones since Strategy pivoted to a Bitcoin Treasury Company.

Conclusion:

Strategy at NAV With €620m Incoming Capital Is a Clear Buy**

The market has priced in every known risk: premium collapse, dilution fear, macro volatility, short pressure.

But it has not priced in:

• STRE deployment,
• treasury re-acceleration,
• BTC/share improvement,
• premium restoration, or
• the next Bitcoin macro leg.

That is the imbalance.

MSTR at NAV, with a rebuilt balance sheet and €620m about to convert to BTC, is not a warning sign — it’s a buying signal.

And historically, these windows don’t stay open for long.

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