H100 Group AB – Pioneering Sweden’s Bitcoin Treasury Strategy: Part 3

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-> Read Part 2

Governance, Risk Management & Controls

H100’s novel strategy brings unique risks. The company has moved swiftly, but management appears mindful of building robust governance around its treasury. Key elements:

Board & Oversight: The Board of Directors (Chairman Jonatan Raknes, CEO Andersen, and others including Bitcoin investor Kristian Lundkvist) are collectively tech entrepreneurs and fintech figures. The board has established a Treasury Committee to oversee Bitcoin-related decisions (implicitly evidenced by EGM approvals and structured tranche funding). Any major issuance or BTC purchase is approved at board level. Given Adam Back’s involvement (not on board, but as investor/advisor), we sense an informal advisory council on treasury strategy, injecting best practices from the crypto industry.

Custody & Security: H100’s Bitcoin are held in cold storage with multi-signature controls. While specifics aren’t public (for security), one press mention noted Blockstream’s support – it’s possible H100 uses Blockstream’s custody or collaborative custody solutions. They likely distribute keys among trusted parties (maybe board members or a custodian firm) to mitigate single-point risk. Insurance may be in place (some custodians like Anchorage or Copper offer insurance on crypto holdings). We consider theft/hack risk low if best practices are followed, but it’s never zero. H100 presumably has a policy prohibiting any single individual from unilaterally moving BTC.

Investment Policy: The board has approved a Treasury Policy outlining:

• Maximum allocation to Bitcoin (which is effectively “all excess cash” at this point).
• Prohibition on other crypto assets (no altcoins or risky yield farming – they are Bitcoin maximalist in approach, aligning with the longevity theme of focusing on enduring assets).
• Trading limits: Likely no active trading of BTC – they buy and hold; any sale would require board sign-off (perhaps only to fund operations if absolutely needed). They’ve indicated they do not intend to sell Bitcoin, instead using other means to fund operations.
• Options usage constraints: e.g., notional limits as discussed, short tenor, etc., to ensure they don’t overextend.
• No leverage on BTC: likely explicitly stated – not to pledge more than a certain % of BTC as collateral to avoid forced liquidation.

Issuance Governance: All share issuances so far were under shareholder-authorized programs (e.g., the Mar 7 EGM authorization for up to X shares). The board must act in fidelity to those resolutions. They have demonstrated good timing. We expect internal guidelines like:

• Not issuing more than a certain % of float in any single tranche (to avoid shocking the market – though 27 M was ~10% new shares, they might consider that the upper bound per issue).
• Cooling-off periods: perhaps giving the market time between rounds (they did July then mid-August, which was fine; they might avoid doing two back-to-back days of issuance).
• If stock falls sharply (say >20% in a day), pause issuance to assess.
• Daily volume limits: if they ever do an ATM style, they’d limit to a fraction of average volume so as not to overwhelm demand. So far they avoided needing an ATM drip, opting for block placements to strategic investors, which is more controlled.

They also have the ability to suspend the accumulation program if market conditions are not favorable – effectively wait it out. That is a risk mitigation: unlike miners who must sell BTC to survive, H100 can simply stop buying if raising capital is too costly, and just hold what they have.

Key Risks and Mitigations:

• Bitcoin Price Drawdowns: The biggest risk to NAV. A 50% BTC crash would halve H100’s asset value and could trigger distress if they had used leverage. Mitigation: no leverage (so no margin calls), and capital raise pacing – ideally raise when price is high, so in a crash they are not needing to sell or raise at a bad time. H100’s strong cash raising in mid-2025 provides a cushion (they could skip raising for a couple of quarters if BTC slumps). Additionally, their option to issue convertibles at fixed strikes means they potentially have capital commitments even in downturns (investors like Back might still fund via loan knowing conversion can happen when price recovers).
• Regulatory/TAX: Crypto regulations in Sweden/EU could change. Currently, companies can hold BTC as an asset freely. But if, say, authorities required mark-to-market accounting or imposed unfavorable capital requirements, that could hurt. Tax-wise, Sweden taxes corporate income at ~20.6%. If H100 ever sells BTC for a gain, that gain is taxable. They likely plan to defer that indefinitely (much like one defers selling appreciated stock). If they needed to rebalance, they might do loans against BTC to avoid a taxable event. Another concern: if classified as an “investment company” by regulators, it might face different listing rules. Mitigation: keeping an operating business helps avoid being seen as a pure investment vehicle needing special regulation.
• Market Liquidity & Execution Slippage: Rapid issuance or large BTC buys could move markets against H100. So far so good: they’ve done placements carefully and likely executed BTC buys OTC (perhaps via algorithm through Coinbase Prime, etc.) to not spike the price. In one purchase of 102 BTC, average price was $120,542, close to market price at the time, suggesting minimal slippage. Liquidity of BTC is high (daily volume tens of billions), so even 1000 BTC buys are not an issue if done smartly. On the equity side, as a ~$150 M market cap company (U.S. OTC), liquidity is decent for a microcap, but any misstep (like an ill-timed large sale by a major holder) could cause volatility. The presence of some institutional holders (Middelborg, etc.) means one must monitor if they reduce stakes – however, those seem aligned with strategy (possibly insiders or friendly investors).
• Custody & Operational Security: We touched on theft risk. Another is key person risk if the CEO or CFO has too much control or knowledge of keys. H100 mitigates by multi-sig and by likely involving a reputable custodian. Also, keeping some BTC in deep cold storage that isn’t touched often reduces the attack surface. We’d like to see H100 eventually get a SOC2 certified custodian or similar for investor comfort.
• Information Asymmetry / Communication: Since H100 is listed on a smaller exchange, some global investors might not get information timely. They addressed this by cross-listing (Frankfurt, OTC) and by regularly issuing English press releases. They also engage on X (Twitter) which keeps the crypto community informed. An MSCI Micro Cap index inclusion in Aug 2025 suggests improved visibility. As H100 grows, it must maintain high disclosure standards to avoid rumors driving stock swings (e.g., clarify when all funds from a raise are deployed, etc.). The regulatory releases on each BTC purchase are a good practice that we think should continue until perhaps they are too frequent to report (a good problem to have!).
• Internal Controls: As a small firm scaling fast, internal financial controls risk is non-trivial. But the nature of treasury assets (Bitcoin) means there’s a real-time, public price feed for their main asset – so less room for financial statement manipulation. Still, we will monitor audit statements for any material weaknesses. The presence of known investors likely pressures them to maintain professionalism in accounting.
• Leadership & Execution: CEO Andersen’s dual focus (health business and BTC treasury) could be demanding. There’s risk of distraction or misallocation (e.g., chasing a health acquisition that doesn’t pan out, thereby wasting capital that could have bought BTC). The board composition (with both health and crypto expertise) is designed to balance this. We get the sense that H100's culture is now “Bitcoin-first” (with slogans equating Bitcoin to health for wealth). Still, any major shift (say CEO departure or disagreement among large shareholders on strategy) could introduce execution risk. The cap table shows a few large holders – if any turned activist against the BTC strategy, that’s a risk. However, given Growthiogen, Middelborg, etc., participated likely because of the strategy, that seems remote.

In summary, H100’s risk management appears adequate for its current size and indeed, it has navigated 2025’s high growth without evident issues. The real test will come in adversity (a big BTC drawdown or a failed capital raise). For now, management’s moves (like securing the Blockstream guarantee early, converting loans promptly, etc.) suggest a proactive stance on risk.

Regulatory & Tax Landscape (Sweden/EU)

H100 operates under Swedish jurisdiction, within the EU regulatory framework. Key aspects include:

Accounting for Bitcoin: Sweden largely follows International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Bitcoin is treated as an intangible asset (IAS 38) if held as a long-term investment, which means:

• Initially recorded at cost.
• Impairment tested annually or when indicators exist; any drop below cost must be written down (cannot be revalued upward under current rules).
• If classified as inventory (if actively trading), could use IAS 2 lower of cost or market, but still not fair value through P&L unless one opts into a fair value model (which IFRS hasn’t explicitly allowed for crypto yet). H100 likely classifies its BTC as intangible assets on the balance sheet. This has the consequence discussed: large impairment losses in bearish periods, and conservative book value of BTC (always at lowest historical cost). For example, as of Sept 30, 2025, H100’s carrying value of BTC might be close to cost (~SEK 1.2 B), whereas market value might have been similar. If BTC rose, say to SEK 1.5 B, they’d still carry at 1.2 B (hidden reserve).

There is a push in the accounting world to allow crypto fair value accounting. If IFRS rules change (FASB in US is moving to fair value for crypto in 2025), EU/Sweden might adopt similar. That would allow H100 to mark gains to income – which, ironically, could introduce volatility in reported earnings, but align book value with reality. It would also eliminate the asymmetry (only impair down, never up). We think H100 would welcome fair value accounting as it would better reflect their performance (and remove the odd scenario of huge accounting losses in a rising accumulation scenario). Until then, they will likely provide non-GAAP metrics to adjust for this.

Corporate Tax Treatment: In Sweden, unrealized gains on intangibles are not taxed (only realized ones or if using fair value through P&L which they are not). So H100’s large BTC appreciation doesn’t create a tax bill until selling. If they sell some BTC, any gain would be taxed at 20.6%. However, note that if they needed to raise fiat, they can raise equity or debt which is not taxable. So they can indefinitely defer taxes by not selling BTC. Possibly, if Sweden had any notion of marking to market for tax (it doesn’t currently for intangibles), that’d be a game changer – but no such rule exists.

Equity Issuance Regulation: H100 is listed on NGM Nordic SME, which has slightly streamlined rules for small companies. They can issue up to 10% new shares quickly (which they did) and more with EGM approval. They need to publish prospectuses for larger offers (the rights issue to 117 M shares in 2025 likely had a prospectus). So far they’ve complied: press releases are timely; the market seems well-informed (no evidence of leaks or unusual trading prior to announcements). The cross-listing on Frankfurt was done without issuing new shares – meaning it’s just a secondary trading venue. That doesn’t change share count, it just allows European investors to trade in EUR.

Cross-Border Listings & Access: Now trading on Frankfurt (Open Market) as well as OTC in the US (OTCQB or Pink – they announced OTCQB from Aug 13, 2025). This means:

• German/European investors can buy via GS9 ticker in EUR.
• U.S. investors can buy HOGPF via brokers like Schwab (as evidenced by Schwab being a top nominee holder at 4.8%).
• This broadens shareholder base and possibly increases foreign ownership (which, as we saw, is high).

Funds and Indices: Inclusion in MSCI Global Micro Cap index (Sweden) as of Aug 2025 indicates institutional acceptance to a degree. Some microcap index funds might hold a small position now. Also Swedish small-cap funds or crypto-themed funds could invest (if their mandate allows). There was speculation if H100 could be included in any crypto ETFs or funds – likely not in traditional ones, but maybe some specialized products might track a basket of public BTC holders.

Retail investor access: In Sweden, popular platforms (Avanza, Nordnet) allow trading of NGM stocks; indeed Avanza Pension holds 2.2%, Nordnet 1.1%. So Swedish retail is active. The question is if H100 qualifies for any tax-advantaged accounts:

• ISK (Investeringssparkonto) a Swedish tax-incentivized account for individuals. It allows holding listed stocks tax efficiently (paying a small notional tax instead of capital gains). H100 shares likely qualify, as they are listed on a recognized exchange. This means Swedish investors can hold H100 similarly to any other stock in an ISK and not worry about capital gains on it they just pay the standard ISK yearly tax (~0.375% of portfolio). This is significant: it means Swedish retail can effectively get BTC exposure via H100 in a tax-deferred way (since if they held BTC directly, any sale is taxed 30%). This could drive demand for H100 if communicated well.
• Pension funds: Some Swedish pension managers (like AP-funds or private pensions via Avanza/Nordnet) might allocate small amounts to high-risk funds like H100. Citibank’s 8.6% holding might be an omnibus for foreign pensions or funds.

EU Regulatory environment: The EU’s MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation) coming into effect 2024 mostly concerns crypto service providers and stablecoins, not holding crypto on balance sheet. If anything, MiCA’s clarity might encourage more firms to consider BTC reserves. Sweden itself hasn’t imposed limits indeed, the Financial Supervisory Authority (FI) did not object to H100’s approach; H100’s press releases are always careful to include disclaimers but no sign of regulatory pushback. If H100 sought a main market listing (Nasdaq Stockholm main board), regulators might ask for enhanced risk disclosures, but not outright forbid it. We note that Arcario AB (another Swedish crypto investment firm) is listed on Nasdaq First North, indicating acceptance.

One area to watch: AML/KYC regulations. Since H100 deals with converting large sums to BTC, banks facilitating those transfers must comply with AML. If banking partners became wary, that could slow purchases. So far no issue presumably they use well-regulated exchanges and proper KYC.

OTC trading (US): The OTC listing HOGPF allows US investors to trade, but being on OTC means lighter reporting requirements in US terms (they rely on Swedish filings). This is fine for now, but if US demand grows, H100 might consider an uplisting to Nasdaq or NYSE via ADR or direct listing. That would require meeting stringent listing standards. It’s likely a longer-term aspiration if they become much bigger (e.g., market cap >$500 M).

Legal structure: H100 AB is the parent; Healthy to 100 AS is a subsidiary. Bitcoin is likely held at the parent level for simplicity. If any international structuring is used (e.g., holding BTC via an overseas subsidiary to optimize tax or custody), they haven’t disclosed it. Possibly not needed given Sweden’s framework.

Are H100 shares tokenized anywhere? There’s mention in the prompt about “tokenized share access”. While Nasdaq had explored tokenized equity pilot, nothing concrete. But interestingly, FTX (now defunct) or other venues had tokenized stocks like MSTR, not sure about H100. For now, not aware of H100 token shares, but given it’s now on OTC, a platform like Uphold or others could allow fractional trading.

Government stance and support: It’s notable a Swedish MP mentioned interest in Bitcoin treasury (hypothetical). If Sweden’s sovereign funds or municipalities ever consider BTC, H100’s pioneering role could either draw political support or scrutiny. So far, neutral. In France, Capital B branded itself as “Europe’s first Bitcoin treasury co.” and got some press. H100 similarly markets itself, which likely brings media attention but not regulatory ire so far.

Conclusion (Regulatory): The environment is reasonably favorable. Key benefits: ability to raise capital, hold BTC, cross-list, and have investors access in tax-efficient ways. Key watchpoints: accounting changes (possibly positive if fair value allowed), any future EU rules on corporate crypto (unlikely to restrict holding BTC – more likely to foster transparency which H100 already provides). Tax changes could always occur (if corporate tax rates change, or if Sweden tried to tax unrealized gains – improbable).

For now, H100 operates in a framework that permits its strategy outright – which cannot be said for all jurisdictions. This regulatory green light is a competitive advantage: companies in countries with uncertain crypto laws might hesitate, whereas H100 can charge ahead.

Shareholder Base & Liquidity

H100’s shareholder register saw a dramatic transformation in 2025, reflecting its shift from a small health-tech to a Bitcoin play attracting global crypto investors:

Ownership Composition (June 30, 2025): The top 15 shareholders account for ~84% of capital. Notable holders:

• Growthiogen Invest AS – 16.4%: Likely a Norwegian family office or fund (possibly affiliated with H100’s Chairman or early Healthy to 100 backers).
• Middelborg Invest AS – 15.5%: A known Norwegian investment firm (Middelborg is linked to investor Øystein Stray Spetalen historically, though unclear if that’s the same entity).
• Modiola AS – 11.6%; E-Nerd AS – 11.8%: These suggest two more Norwegian investors (AS = Aksjeselskap, Norwegian for Ltd). They could be tech entrepreneurs or crypto enthusiasts from Norway who seeded the pivot.
• Citibank N.A. – 8.6%: Likely as a nominee/custodian for multiple underlying investors, possibly U.S. or others buying via Citi. Could include e.g. some hedge funds or the Blockstream investment (if they went through Citi).
• Charles Schwab & Co. – 4.8%: This indicates significant U.S. retail ownership (Schwab’s brokerage holds on behalf of clients).
• Nordea Bank (Norge) – 4.4% and JP Morgan Chase – 2.2%: More nominee accounts, pointing to Nordic and international investors.
• Berat Taraku – 2.8%: Likely an individual, possibly a principal of one of the above AS companies or an angel investor in the project.
• Avanza Pension – 2.2% and Nordnet Pension – 1.1%: Swedish retail and pension savers via popular platforms.
• Clearstream Banking – 1.9%, BNP Paribas – 1.2%: More foreign custodians (Clearstream caters to European investors, BNP likely similar).

The presence of multiple Norwegian entities at the top signals that the Healthy to 100 AS acquisition was likely paid in shares. Indeed, perhaps Growthiogen, Middelborg, etc., were owners of Healthy to 100 who received H100 shares as consideration (which would explain their large stakes and interest in BTC pivot). Their continued holding implies alignment with the new strategy (they haven’t dumped shares despite an opportunity during price spikes – a good sign of long-term commitment).

Foreign vs Domestic: By summing the clearly foreign (Norwegian + international banks) we get >60% foreign ownership. Domestic Swedish ownership might be around 20–30% (mostly through pension/retail accounts and “Other shareholders” which includes thousands of small holders that came on via rights issues or market purchases). So H100’s shareholder base is unusually international for a Swedish microcap. This is advantageous for liquidity and future capital access, as it’s not reliant solely on the local market.

Retail vs Institutional: We see a mix:

• Institutions/Family offices: Growthiogen, Middelborg, Modiola, E-Nerd, possibly some U.S. hedge funds hidden in Citi/JPM.
• Retail: The 4,300 shareholders total suggests many small investors joined likely in 2023–25. Avanza/Nordnet data suggests a few thousand retail have small positions.
• Insiders: CEO Andersen’s personal holding isn’t listed in top names (maybe he holds via one of those AS or under “Other”). His stake might not be huge (perhaps he got shares as part of Healthy to 100 but maybe <1%). If key team have equity, they might be within “Other shareholders 16.4%” bucket.

Free Float: NGM definition might consider largest strategic holders (say top 3 or 4) as non-free float. If we exclude the top 4 (~55%), free float ~45% of shares (~52 M shares as of June; but after all issuances, free float likely higher since new shares mostly went to new investors widely). Given post-summer issuance, many more shares are out with presumably newer investors like Evan Rosenberg, Loek Schellekens, Sebastiaan Ribbink (mentioned in the $14.1M round) – these are possibly European tech investors, maybe not long-term diamond hands like the Norwegians. So the free float might have increased. We guess free float now ~60–70% after dilution (the initial large holders’ percentage shrank as shares grew).

Trading Liquidity: On NGM, H100’s daily volume ranged from a few hundred thousand shares to millions during peak news:

• In May–June 2025, volume was modest (stock was low-priced and under radar).
• After the BTC pivot news, volume picked up. The average daily value was ~SEK 0.9 M (maybe ~150k shares at ~6 SEK avg), but on big days like Aug 8 (MSCI inclusion news) or Aug 27 (BTC purchase news) volumes spiked. The stock’s 52-week high of 16.45 likely came on a high-volume day (perhaps >5 M shares traded).
• The Frankfurt listing (GS9) adds some volume (though typically small, tens of thousands € per day perhaps) – but it provides European investors easier access.
• The OTC listing similarly adds some U.S. volume (we saw interest via Schwab). As of now, the primary liquidity is still in Stockholm.

Turnover & Velocity: With 330 M shares now, annual turnover might not be that high in percentage terms yet. But recall that in crypto bull runs, stocks like H100 can become “trading vehicles” with velocity far above typical. If H100 becomes a retail favorite, its entire float could rotate in months. Already we saw new entrants in Q3. This can cause volatility but also ensures that when H100 wants to do another placement, there are active traders and investors following it.

Market Support: H100 has actively engaged the market:

• Joining conferences (the CEO presented an H100 investor presentation in May 2025).
• Press and PR in crypto outlets (numerous articles in BTC Times, etc., likely fed by company PRs).
• Possibly doing non-deal roadshows to crypto funds.

They likely have a Designated Adviser or similar (as required on NGM) to help ensure compliance and also maybe provide liquidity. No formal market-making info, but some Swedish brokers might be making a market to reduce spread. The stock did jump a lot, implying perhaps not a lot of resting liquidity at times.

Tokenized Access: While not formal, one could consider a near-future scenario where a platform like Securitize or Binance lists a token representing H100 shares (like they did with Tesla, etc.). That could further broaden access, but it’s speculative. It’s not something H100 controls or necessarily endorses.

Investor Base Evolution: A year ago, H100 was owned mostly by Swedish and Norwegian insiders and a small retail base. Now it’s morphing into a crypto investor darling. If Bitcoin adoption by corporates picks up, we may see more institutional crypto funds take positions (e.g., Bitwise’s crypto opportunities fund, or ARK’s funds if it fits their mandate). The mention of Adam Back suggests perhaps Blockstream (or its affiliates) could be stakeholders – indeed Back led a convertible round. Those might convert and hold equity long-term. Also, MSCI Micro Cap inclusion means quant funds hold small positions.

Liquidity for Issuance: The more liquid the stock, the easier it is for H100 to raise capital without large price impact. In Q3, they managed to issue ~$6–16 M blocks which the market digested. As the market cap grows, they could in future do larger raises (e.g., a $50 M ATM over months, or $100 M bought deal in a bull case). Liquidity likely increases with market cap – a positive feedback. Conversely in downturns, liquidity can dry up (so H100 will avoid issuing then).

Share Turnover Spikes: We saw one in May 2024 (initial BTC news) and bigger in Jul/Aug 2025 (as stock 10×’ed from <1 to ~10+ SEK). Another spike could come with big catalysts (like if BTC price soars, or if H100 announces an uplist or partnership). High turnover often correlates with price peaks (momentum traders pile in then out). The presence of some long-term holders in top list provides some stability (they likely won’t sell on short-term swings; indeed they held through the run-up).

One potential overhang: Lock-ups or insider selling. The Norwegians have not indicated selling, but if any were short-term oriented, they might sell into strength. However, any sale over 5% must be flagged. None reported yet, so likely stable. Insiders might also be subject to lock-ups from the Healthy to 100 deal – maybe a 1-year lock (just conjecture). If so, those could expire in late 2023 or early 2024, but since they held till mid-2025, not a worry now.

Shareholder Engagement: H100’s investor relations seems proactive: regular news updates, a user-friendly IR site with subscriptions. They likely hold an annual general meeting where shareholders vote (2025 AGM scheduled Nov 11) – perhaps to ratify board and new authorizations. We expect a high turnout given an engaged investor base. So far, shareholders have approved large issuance authorizations (an indication of trust in management to use them accretively).

Future Shareholder Base: If H100’s plan succeeds, we foresee:

• Increased institutional ownership (maybe small-cap growth funds, crypto ETFs picking it up).
• Continued strong foreign interest (especially if no other European does similar at scale).
• Possibly insider increases – management might award themselves or key hires performance-based shares (one PR noted shares to an advisor via an agreement; more of that could align interests).
• Retail might grow too as awareness spreads; H100 could become known as “the European MicroStrategy” which might attract global Bitcoin believers who missed MicroStrategy’s early run.

Liquidity Risk: The main concern is if sentiment flips and volume dries up. If H100 needed to raise cash in a scenario where trading volume is low, any issuance could cause a big price drop (if buyers aren’t there). That scenario likely pairs with a BTC bear market, making it a double whammy. H100 mitigates by raising more when it can (they front-loaded raises in Q3 presumably to have ammo, which they then used). They can also scale down accumulation in lean times, as mentioned.

In conclusion, H100’s shareholder base is increasingly diverse and liquid, which is beneficial for its capital strategy. With strong foreign and retail participation, it has a broad set of holders who understand the Bitcoin thesis (that’s critical – you want shareholders aligned with the risky strategy, not surprised by it). This community of shareholders, including prominent crypto figures, should help sustain H100 through volatility – as they are likely to hold or even buy dips, rather than panic. It’s almost akin to an equity-backed HODLer syndicate. For a company in this domain, that is ideal.

Catalyst Calendar & What to Watch

H100 is at the nexus of crypto markets and corporate actions, so investors should keep an eye on a variety of catalysts:

Near-Term Disclosure Events:

• Q3 2025 Interim Report (expected Nov 2025): While quarterly reports may not show profit, they will give official BTC holding count, perhaps updated share count, and management commentary. Look for any new KPI reporting (e.g., BTC/share in MD&A). There may also be an outlook or hints on pace of accumulation.
• Extraordinary General Meeting (if called): If H100 seeks to renew or expand its authorization to issue shares (the current one might have limits), they might call an EGM. One could occur in H1 2026 if they plan new funding tranches. EGM notices will detail proposed new share limits or instrument authorizations – key to understanding how aggressive next raises might be.
• Treasury Updates: We expect continuing press releases for significant BTC purchases. Possibly not for every minor buy if they start doing small ones frequently, but certainly whenever a milestone is hit (e.g., 1,500 BTC, 2,000 BTC etc.) or a large single purchase. Also any entry into options or new financing would be PR’d.

Capital-Raise Windows:

• Market Windows: If Bitcoin price surges or H100 stock spikes (say back to >SEK 10), anticipate H100 to capitalize with a funding announcement (either a direct placement or launching an ATM program). Conversely, in sustained rally, they might do multiple sequential raises – e.g., like MicroStrategy did three ATMs in 2021. These can come fast, so being aware of stock price relative to NAV is important – a high premium likely precedes an issuance.
• Tranche 8 Activation: The convertible tranche 8 (33% above last strike) might be executed if stock goes above ~SEK 11.3. That would bring in ~SEK 150 M (Blockstream/Back’s funds) in one go. Watch the stock around that level – if it closes strong above 11 for a period, H100 might announce conversion of that commitment (yielding maybe ~15 M new shares at 11.3, all going to Back & co.). This would be bullish as it injects cash to buy more BTC without needing broad market placement.
• Potential U.S. Listing or Larger Offering: A wildcard – if H100 wanted to raise very large capital, they could do a global offering (e.g., dual-list on Nasdaq or do a private placement to a big institution). Any rumor or step towards a bigger exchange uplisting would be significant (it would require major compliance upgrades, but would vastly expand investor access). Not likely immediate, but maybe 2026+ if size justifies.
• Warrant/Option Issuance: If H100 ever considered issuing warrants (maybe to strategic partners or in a rights issue to existing holders to minimize dilution), they’d announce it. A rights issue might occur if they want to give current shareholders a chance to avoid dilution (not done recently because external demand was so high). If stock is weak, they might favor rights issue to raise capital without price pressure (shareholders get to subscribe pro-rata). That’s a scenario to watch in a down market.

Governance & Corporate:

• Annual General Meeting 2026 (likely Q2 2026): Agenda might include board elections (are any crypto industry veterans nominated?), approval of more share issuance capacity, or perhaps a share consolidation (reverse split) if share count ballooned (some companies do that to make share price optics better; e.g., MSTR did a split earlier in its life). Unlikely for now.
• Management Additions/Departures: E.g., the hiring of Brian Brookshire as Head of Bitcoin Strategy (Aug 2025) was notable. Future hires like a CFO with crypto background, or a risk officer, etc., can strengthen execution. Conversely, if a key person left (CEO or Chairman), it’d raise questions.
• M&A Opportunities: H100 could become a consolidator or target. If another Bitcoin-holding firm or miner is struggling, H100 might acquire their BTC or merge. Vice versa, a larger entity might attempt to acquire H100 for its BTC (essentially buying BTC at some valuation). While not immediate, the field is evolving – keep an ear for any partnerships or merger talks in the sector.
• Regulatory Classification: If any news emerges about IFRS changing crypto accounting (IASB meetings) or Swedish regulators issuing guidance on corporate crypto, that’s important. Also, any talk of ETFs – a Bitcoin spot ETF approval (e.g., by U.S. SEC, potentially in 2024) could boost BTC price and also possibly dampen premium for companies like H100 (as investors have easier direct BTC exposure). Or maybe not, since H100 offers leveraged growth, which ETFs don’t.

Macro & Industry:

• Bitcoin Halving (April 2024): Historically a catalyst for BTC price increases in following 12–18 months. H100 could benefit strongly if post-halving bull cycle unfolds in 2025 (which indeed our base case assumed). Track BTC network and price metrics around that event.
• Institutional Adoption Trends: Each time a notable company buys BTC (e.g., Tesla in 2021, or in 2025 KindlyMD’s big purchase), it brings attention to this strategy. If more companies follow, investors may flock to the “category leaders” – H100 aims to be one. Also, any supportive commentary from regulators or adoption (e.g., an EU country considering holding BTC reserves) could uplift sentiment.

Key Metrics to Watch Continually:

• BTC Holdings & BTC/Share (quarterly) – confirm H100 is increasing steadily.
• mNAV multiple (daily) – as discussed, a barometer for when capital raises or strategy shifts might occur.
• Trading volume and short interest – if available, to gauge market sentiment. High short interest could either mean skeptics betting on collapse (if so, possibly a squeeze if BTC pumps) or arbitrage (short stock, long BTC to capture premium – if mNAV high).
• Option markets: If H100 becomes optionable (not currently many listed options given small cap), that would attract more traders and could influence volatility.

Catalyst Timeline (next 12 months estimate):

• Nov 28, 2025: (indicative date from Inderes) Interim Report Q2’26 (perhaps misprint, likely Q3’25 interim). Expect Q3 results late Nov 2025.
• Early Jan 2026: If BTC price moves significantly year-end, watch for any New Year PR (some companies announce year-end BTC holdings).
• Mar 2026: Possible EGM or press on funding plans if stock high.
• Apr 2026: FY2025 Annual Report release. Should have comprehensive BTC metrics and possibly audits of custody.
• May–June 2026: AGM 2026. Watch for new share authorization and strategic updates.
• Ongoing: Press releases on BTC purchases (likely every time ~50+ BTC added or major thresholds reached).

We summarize: Watch for continued execution – each quarter H100 should ideally show higher BTC/share. Any deviation (e.g., share count grows faster than BTC, reducing BTC/share) would be a negative surprise unless explained by timing issues. Conversely, if they announce a big leap in BTC (like “we raised X and bought additional Y BTC”) that can re-rate the stock.

In the fast-moving crypto world, flexibility is key. H100 has set itself up with multiple catalyst levers – they can create their own catalyst by raising capital and buying more BTC when conditions allow. Thus, investors in H100 should be prepared for sudden announcements and should evaluate them through the lens of BTC/share accretion.

Actionable “Watch Fors”:

• Watch for BTC > $100k – likely triggers H100 equity raise.
• Watch H100 stock > SEK 8.5 – convertible likely to convert; > SEK 11 – new tranche.
• Watch volume spikes or block trades – could indicate a large holder move.
• Listen on earnings calls (if held) or interviews – management might drop hints of next steps (e.g., exploring debt options, etc.).

Overall, H100’s story will unfold as a series of catalytic events tied to Bitcoin’s cycle and the company’s proactive capital moves. The next year will be crucial in proving whether the initial sprint to 1k BTC can be followed by a marathon of sustainable growth.

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